Berkshire Hathaway Signals Potential Exit From Kraft Heinz After Decade of Underperformance

A Decade-Long Disappointment

Berkshire’s consideration of a full exit underscores the fundamental failure of its Kraft Heinz investment thesis. The conglomerate took a $3.76 billion write-down on its stake last summer, acknowledging that the 2015 merger—which combined Heinz with Kraft Foods to create a packaged food powerhouse—has failed to deliver anticipated long-term growth.[2][10] This write-down represents one of Berkshire’s most significant investment losses in recent years and signals management’s loss of confidence in the company’s turnaround prospects.

The underperformance reflects broader challenges facing legacy food manufacturers navigating shifting consumer preferences, intensifying private label competition, and margin pressures. Morgan Stanley downgraded Kraft Heinz to Underweight, citing the U.S. food sector’s rising competitive risk as value-focused pricing, promotions, and private label momentum accelerate into 2026, with Kraft Heinz facing “particularly acute risk” given its outsized private label penetration.[2]

Strategic Divergence: Buffett’s Skepticism on Company Split

Berkshire’s potential exit also reflects management’s public opposition to Kraft Heinz’s board-approved plan to separate the company into two independent publicly traded entities.[6] Buffett has been an outspoken critic of the proposed split, viewing it as a distraction from operational improvement rather than a path to value creation. The divergence between Berkshire and Kraft Heinz’s board on strategic direction has likely accelerated the divestment timeline.

The separation plan, designed to simplify operations and enhance performance, represents a tacit acknowledgment that the 2015 merger strategy has not achieved its objectives. However, Berkshire’s skepticism suggests the conglomerate believes the split will not materially improve the underlying business fundamentals or justify continued ownership.

Market Implications and Analyst Perspective

Kraft Heinz faces a challenging operating environment heading into 2026. The company missed organic sales expectations in the third quarter (down 2.5% versus consensus of -2.2%) and lowered full-year guidance, citing deteriorating industry conditions and the need for higher investment spending in 2026.[2] Piper Sandler noted that Kraft Heinz’s top-line momentum remains weak and expects the company will require additional brand investment to return to growth, though tariff relief on coffee imports in Q2 2026 may provide modest cost benefits.[2]

Analyst sentiment reflects cautious skepticism. TD Cowen maintained a Hold rating with a price target of $26, down from $28, while Barclays kept an Equal Weight rating at $24, believing current issues are cyclical rather than structural.[2] The consensus view suggests limited near-term catalysts for meaningful stock appreciation, particularly with Berkshire’s potential exit removing a significant institutional anchor investor.

Broader Context: Buffett’s Portfolio Reorientation

The potential Kraft Heinz divestment aligns with Berkshire’s broader shift away from public equity investments. The conglomerate has been a net seller of stocks for 12 consecutive quarters through September 2025, divesting approximately $184 billion in equities.[9] As of the most recent reporting period, Berkshire held more cash, cash equivalents, and Treasury bills than the value of its entire public equity portfolio, signaling management’s difficulty in identifying compelling investment opportunities at current valuations.

This reorientation reflects the structural reality that Berkshire’s $1.11 trillion market capitalization limits its ability to deploy capital in ways that meaningfully move the needle on returns. A $10 billion investment that doubles in value would theoretically increase Berkshire’s market cap by only 1%, constraining the universe of actionable opportunities to massive positions like Apple or organic growth in controlled businesses such as Berkshire Hathaway Energy.

What’s Next for Kraft Heinz

Berkshire’s potential exit creates near-term uncertainty for Kraft Heinz, particularly regarding the company’s ability to finance operations and execute its separation strategy without a supportive anchor shareholder. The loss of Berkshire’s 27.5% stake removes a stabilizing force and may complicate the company’s access to capital markets during a period of operational transition.

The company’s path forward depends on successfully executing its two-entity separation while stabilizing organic sales trends and defending market share against accelerating private label competition. Management’s assertion that tariff relief will provide cost benefits in Q2 2026 offers a potential near-term catalyst, though analyst skepticism about margin expansion suggests pricing discipline will remain challenging in a competitive environment.

For institutional investors and deal advisors monitoring the packaged food sector, Berkshire’s exit signals that even the most disciplined value investors have concluded that legacy food manufacturers face structural headwinds that cannot be overcome through financial engineering or operational optimization alone. The divestment underscores the sector’s vulnerability to secular demand shifts and the difficulty of generating attractive returns in mature, commoditized markets facing relentless private label pressure.