Trump’s FTC Signals Tougher Scrutiny on M&A Deals Raising Cost of Living, Commissioner Warns

Private equity firms and strategics pursuing **cross-border M&A trends 2025** into 2026 face heightened risks, particularly in consumer-facing sectors like fintech, payments, and logistics. FTC enforcement remains active, as seen in its January 14 demand for $52.9 million from a payments processor violating a prior settlement.[1][3]

Implications for Deal Pipelines

Key sectors under watch include AI inputs, where the FTC is monitoring competition in foundational technologies to prevent cost pass-throughs to businesses and consumers.[2][5] Tech acqui-hires also draw scrutiny, with Commissioner Mark Meador flagging risks to labor markets and innovation.[2]

• Fintech and Payments: Trump’s endorsement of swipe-fee legislation pressures banks, complicating **private equity exit strategies in SaaS** and payment platforms.[1]
• Logistics and Rail: Union Pacific-Norfolk Southern merger faces rival pushback at the Surface Transportation Board, with efficiency gains pitched against consumer cost concerns.[4]
• Telecom: Verizon’s Frontier takeover cleared with diversity concessions, signaling conditional approvals.[3]

Regulatory Crosscurrents and Market Reactions

DOJ Antitrust Division leadership has barred political appointees from public events, hinting at internal realignments amid Trump’s tariff actions on semiconductors and critical minerals.[2][6] These moves could accelerate **M&A valuation shifts 2026** in supply-chain dependent industries.

Bain & Company notes in its 2026 outlook that antitrust focus on consumer costs may chill deals in groceries, energy, and housing, echoing historical blocks like Kroger-Albertsons. Goldman Sachs strategists predict a 15-20% uptick in challenged filings, advising **private equity portfolio optimization** via divestitures preempting reviews.[2][4]

Strategic Advice for C-Suite and Advisors

McKinsey recommends modeling consumer-price impacts in HSR filings, with sensitivity analyses on inflation passthroughs. Kirkland & Ellis partners urge early FTC engagement for deals over $119.5 million post-threshold revisions.[10] KKR’s infrastructure team eyes opportunities in tariff-hit sectors, targeting **private equity buyout trends 2026** resilient to cost-focused blocks.

Deal volume dipped 8% in Q4 2025 per PitchBook, but strategics adapt via carve-outs. BCG forecasts rebound if FTC clarifies “cost of living” thresholds, potentially favoring pro-competitive efficiencies over pure populism.