Ardian, the Paris-based private equity giant managing over €150 billion in assets as of late 2025, plans to pass on certain software investments due to escalating AI-related uncertainties. The firm cited volatile revenue forecasts, intellectual property vulnerabilities, and regulatory overhangs as key factors in its selective approach to software buyouts and growth equity deals.
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This stance reflects broader private equity risk assessment trends in AI-exposed sectors, where firms like Ardian are recalibrating portfolios amid 2026’s market dynamics. According to Bain & Company’s 2026 Global Private Equity Report, 42% of PE managers now incorporate AI disruption scores into deal screening, up from 28% in 2024, prioritizing resilience over pure growth multiples.
AI Risks Reshaping Software M&A Landscape
Software companies, long a PE staple with median EV/EBITDA multiples hovering at 14x in Q4 2025 per PitchBook data, face intensified scrutiny. Ardian’s decision underscores concerns over:
- Revenue Predictability: Generative AI tools erode margins for legacy SaaS providers, with McKinsey estimating 30% of enterprise software spend at risk of displacement by 2028.
- IP and Talent Flight: Open-source AI models and executive poaching by Big Tech have devalued proprietary codebases, as noted in Goldman Sachs’ 2026 Tech M&A Outlook.
- Regulatory Pressures: EU AI Act enforcement and U.S. antitrust probes into AI consolidations add exit timeline risks, echoing Kirkland & Ellis warnings on cross-border PE transactions in AI-adjacent software.
Ardian’s move aligns with peers: KKR flagged similar hesitations in its Q1 2026 investor letter, rejecting three software tuck-ins over AI model dependency. Historical parallels include the 2023 post-ChatGPT pullback, when software deal volume dropped 22% year-over-year, per S&P Global Market Intelligence.
Financial Implications for PE Exit Strategies in SaaS
Valuation compression is evident. Ardian targets software deals with AI risk premiums baked into pricing—demanding 20-30% discounts on comparable multiples. A table of recent benchmarks illustrates the shift:
| Deal | Date | EV/EBITDA Multiple | AI Exposure |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thoma Bravo / Coupa (rejected rumor) | Q4 2025 | 12.5x | High |
| Vista Equity / Marketo | Q2 2025 | 16.2x | Low |
| Ardian target (hypothetical) | 2026 | <11x | Medium-High |
BCG’s analysis predicts software PE dry powder—$450 billion globally—will tilt toward AI-native firms, with traditional SaaS facing longer hold periods (median 5.8 years vs. 4.2 years pre-2025).
Strategic Alternatives for Software Sellers
Amid Ardian’s caution, deal advisors recommend diversification: bolt-on AI integrations or pivots to vertical SaaS less prone to generalization (e.g., healthcare compliance tools). Cross-border M&A trends 2026 favor U.S.-EU flows, but only for firms with defensible moats, per Lazard’s advisory.
For C-level executives eyeing private equity exit strategies in SaaS, the message is clear: audit AI exposure now. Ardian’s filter signals a market where risk-adjusted returns trump scale, reshaping software dealmaking through 2027.
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