SoftBank Group’s ambitious $50 billion proposal to construct data centers powering OpenAI’s AI infrastructure has unraveled, sources familiar with the talks confirmed. The collapse, reported late Friday, stems from disagreements over equity stakes, funding commitments, and OpenAI’s governance structure, derailing what would have ranked among the largest single investments in AI hardware.
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The deal’s failure underscores escalating tensions in the race for AI compute capacity, where hyperscalers and private equity players compete for scarce resources. As of January 26, 2026, OpenAI reaffirmed its path toward independent expansion, while SoftBank pivots to alternative AI infrastructure plays.
Deal Background and Breakdown
SoftBank, led by Masayoshi Son, approached OpenAI in late 2025 with plans to fund and build multiple gigawatt-scale data centers in the U.S., primarily in Arizona and Texas. The $50 billion commitment—split between $30 billion in direct equity and $20 billion in debt financing—aimed to secure OpenAI’s compute needs through 2030, addressing bottlenecks in training models like successors to GPT-5.
Negotiations faltered over key terms:
- Equity Control: SoftBank sought a board seat and 15-20% ownership in OpenAI’s for-profit arm, clashing with OpenAI’s capped-profit structure favoring nonprofit oversight.
- Funding Timeline: OpenAI demanded upfront commitments; SoftBank conditioned disbursements on milestones, citing Vision Fund’s liquidity constraints post-2024 Arm IPO windfalls.
- Regulatory Hurdles: U.S. antitrust scrutiny, amplified by CFIUS reviews of foreign-linked AI investments, added friction.
Sources indicate OpenAI CEO Sam Altman viewed the deal as a shortcut to Nvidia GPU access but balked at SoftBank’s influence, echoing past clashes with Microsoft, OpenAI’s primary backer holding a $13 billion stake.
Financial Implications for Stakeholders
| Party | Exposure | Post-Collapse Impact |
|---|---|---|
| SoftBank | $100B+ dry powder in Vision Fund 2 | Shifts to Crusoe Energy, CoreWeave; stock dips 2% in Tokyo |
| OpenAI | $157B valuation (Oct 2025 round) | Seeks $10B from sovereign funds; delays Stargate project |
| Nvidia | Supply chain lock-in | Boosts Blackwell orders; shares +1.5% after-hours |
McKinsey’s January 2026 AI Infrastructure Report projects global data center capex at $1 trillion by 2028, with 40% tied to generative AI. SoftBank’s bid collapse highlights risks in private equity data center investments for AI scaling, where capex recovery lags 5-7 years amid power grid constraints.
Industry Ripple Effects and Strategic Shifts
Bain & Company’s 2026 M&A Outlook notes a 25% uptick in AI infrastructure deals, but funding disputes have torpedoed 15% of megadeals over $10 billion. OpenAI now eyes partnerships with Oracle and Saudi PIF, mirroring Microsoft’s $10 billion OpenAI top-up in 2023.
SoftBank, burned by WeWork, refocuses on proven bets: a $2.5 billion extension to CoreWeave and joint ventures with Saudi Arabia’s Humain for Middle East hubs. Goldman Sachs analysts forecast cross-border AI infrastructure M&A trends 2026 favoring U.S.-GCC alliances, with IRR hurdles rising to 20% from 15% in 2024.
Kirkland & Ellis partners advise that future data center financing for OpenAI competitors will prioritize hybrid models blending PE dry powder, REIT debt, and hyperscaler offtake agreements to mitigate SoftBank-style breakdowns.
Comparable Deals and Outlook
- Microsoft-OpenAI (2023): $13B infusion; no equity control—model for future backers.
- KKR-CoreWeave (2025): $1.1B secondary; 35% IRR projection.
- Blackstone-Digital Realty (2024): $7B REIT merger; stabilized yields amid power shortages.
The fallout accelerates consolidation in AI compute, with BCG predicting $200 billion in deals by 2027. For C-level executives eyeing private equity exit strategies in AI infrastructure, the lesson is clear: align governance early or risk deal implosion.
Sources
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