Strategic Consolidation in Orbit: Assessing the SES-Intelsat Merger’s Impact on Europe’s Space Ambitions

Defense Sector Implications

With 54% of SES’s Q1 2024 revenue coming from government networks[7], the merger strengthens Europe’s position in secure military communications. The combined entity now serves 37 NATO member states with encrypted GEO-MEO solutions, contrasting with Starlink’s commercial LEO infrastructure that faced scrutiny during the Ukraine conflict[4][17]. However, reliance on U.S.-manufactured satellites (58% of the combined fleet) complicates EU sovereignty objectives[19].

Competitive Landscape Analysis

Technical Performance Benchmarks

While the merged GEO-MEO network offers global coverage with 600ms latency[10], Starlink’s LEO constellation delivers 20-40ms response times comparable to terrestrial fiber[16]. Capacity tests show SES-Intelsat’s combined 1.2Tbps throughput[2] versus Starlink’s estimated 42Tbps network capacity[20], though the European operator maintains advantages in broadcast video distribution (228 million euros Q1 revenue)[7].

Market Position and Growth Trajectories

The merger creates a €3.8 billion revenue entity[7], dwarfed by SpaceX’s $14.7 billion Starlink revenue in 2024[20]. With Amazon’s Project Kuiper planning 3,236 LEO satellites[17], SES-Intelsat risks being squeezed between LEO broadband providers and terrestrial 5G networks. The companies’ 9 billion euro backlog[7] provides near-term stability but lacks Starlink’s 110-country commercial footprint[12].

Regulatory Hurdles and Geopolitical Factors

Spectrum Allocation Challenges

NAB’s FCC filing highlights the merged entity’s control over 96% of U.S. C-band spectrum[13], critical for broadcast distribution. European regulators face pressure to approve the deal before IRIS²’s 2030 launch[19], despite concerns about reduced competition in government satellite services.

EU’s Strategic Autonomy Dilemma

The European Commission’s conditional support for the merger[14][18] aligns with its 6.5 billion euro IRIS² initiative[19], creating a multi-orbit infrastructure partnership with Eutelsat and Hispasat. However, continued reliance on SpaceX Falcon 9 launches (48% of SES’s 2023 deployments)[15] undermines Europe’s Ariane 6 recovery efforts.

Pathways to Relevance in the LEO Era

Hybrid Network Architectures

SES CEO Adel Al-Saleh’s strategy focuses on GEO-MEO integration with Starlink as a complementary LEO layer[9], exemplified by the U.S. Defense Department’s multi-orbit procurement approach. Early trials show 40% cost reductions when blending GEO backhaul with LEO edge computing[16].

Standardization and Interoperability

The merged entity leads the ETSI’s new Multi-Orbit Terminal Specification initiative, aiming to reduce user terminal costs by 60% through modular designs[15]. This contrasts with Starlink’s proprietary technology stack that locks users into SpaceX’s ecosystem.

Conclusion: A Bridge Too GEO?

While the SES-Intelsat merger temporarily stabilizes Europe’s satellite industry, its 8-year technology roadmap[2] struggles to match Starlink’s 6-month iteration cycles. The real test will come in 2026 when both companies’ next-gen satellites enter service alongside Amazon’s Kuiper constellation – a showdown that may determine whether GEO-MEO architectures can coexist with LEO dominance or become niche solutions for latency-tolerant applications.